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Let me start out with something you have to accept if you even want to honestly have this discussion and consider how relevant to you it could be. The answer is yes, not may be, the answer is yes. In fact it is almost a 100% likelihood that sooner of later it is going to happen.
How can we know this? Because no Empire that ever existed has ever not eventually fallen apart. The real questions to look at are…
1. How probable is it that it will happen in your lifetime? I am sure it was clear that Rome was doomed to many 100 years before it really fell, just for instance.
2. If it happens, what does it look like?
3. If it happens where do you want to be when it happens?
4. If it happens how much choice will you have after it happens to change your mind about where you live?
5. What resources will you most need if this happens?
Here is where I am right now, I consider this a high impact low probability event for the near future but the probability is much higher that it was say 10 years ago. The constant reality to shifts like this is a single phrase, "gradually then suddenly" and that is happening in so many places right now.
And I will end with, The USSR broke up almost exactly 2 years after abandoning Afghanistan. That would land us in the 3rd year of the Biden administration, 4.5 years into the national suicide of the covid response and in the roughly 42nd year of truly unabated money printing that began with Regan.
"Gradually then Suddenly"
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